{"id":1609,"date":"2017-01-27T21:18:33","date_gmt":"2017-01-27T18:18:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/artificialbrain.xyz\/?p=1609"},"modified":"2017-01-27T21:42:28","modified_gmt":"2017-01-27T18:42:28","slug":"the-top-myths-about-advanced-artificial-intelligence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newworldai.com\/the-top-myths-about-advanced-artificial-intelligence\/","title":{"rendered":"The Top Myths About Advanced Artificial Intelligence"},"content":{"rendered":"

A captivating\u00a0conversation is taking place about the future of artificial intelligence and what it will\/should mean for humanity.\u00a0There are fascinating controversies where\u00a0the world\u2019s leading experts disagree, such as: AI\u2019s future impact on the job market; if\/when human-level AI will be developed; whether this will lead to an intelligence explosion; and whether this is\u00a0something we should welcome\u00a0or fear.\u00a0But there are\u00a0also many examples of of boring pseudo-controversies caused by people misunderstanding and talking past each other.\u00a0To help ourselves focus on the interesting controversies and open questions \u2014 and not on the misunderstandings \u2014 let\u2019s \u00a0clear up some of the most common myths.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"TIMELINE<\/p>\n

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TIMELINE MYTHS<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The first myth regards the timeline: how long will it take until machines greatly supersede human-level intelligence? A common misconception is that we know the answer with great certainly.<\/span><\/p>\n

One popular myth is that we know we\u2019ll get superhuman AI this century.\u00a0In fact, history is full of technological over-hyping. Where are those fusion power plants and flying cars we were promised we\u2019d have by now?\u00a0AI has also been repeatedly over-hyped in the past, even by some of the founders of the field. For example, John McCarthy (who coined the term \u201cartificial intelligence\u201d)<\/span><\/strong>, Marvin Minsky, Nathaniel Rochester and Claude Shannon\u00a0wrote this overly optimistic forecast about what could be accomplished during two months with stone-age computers:\u00a0\u201cWe propose that a 2 month, 10 man study of artificial intelligence be carried out during the summer of 1956 at Dartmouth College [\u2026]<\/em>\u00a0An attempt will be made to find how to make machines use language, form abstractions and concepts, solve kinds of problems now reserved for humans, and improve themselves. We think that a significant advance can be made in one or more of these problems if a carefully selected group of scientists work on it together for a summer.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

On the other hand, a popular counter-myth is that we know we won\u2019t get superhuman AI this century.\u00a0Researchers have made a wide range of estimates for how far we are from superhuman AI, but we certainly can\u2019t say with great confidence that the probability is zero this century, given the dismal track record of such techno-skeptic predictions. For example, Ernest Rutherford, arguably the greatest nuclear physicist of his time, said in 1933 \u2014 less than 24 hours before Szilard\u2019s invention of the nuclear chain reaction \u2014 that nuclear energy was \u201cmoonshine.\u201d And\u00a0Astronomer Royal Richard Woolley called interplanetary travel \u201cutter bilge\u201d in 1956.\u00a0The most extreme form of this myth is that superhuman AI will never arrive because it\u2019s physically impossible.\u00a0However, physicists know that a brain consists of quarks and electrons arranged to act as a powerful computer, and that there\u2019s no law of physics preventing us from building even more intelligent quark blobs.<\/span><\/p>\n

There have been a number of surveys asking AI researchers how many years from now they think\u00a0we\u2019ll have human-level AI with at least 50% probability. All these surveys have the same conclusion: the world\u2019s leading experts disagree, so we simply don\u2019t know.\u00a0For example, in such a poll of the AI researchers at the 2015 Puerto Rico AI conference, the average (median) answer was by year 2045, but some researchers guessed hundreds of years or more.<\/span><\/p>\n

There\u2019s also a related myth that people who worry about AI think it\u2019s only a few years away. In fact, most people on record worrying about superhuman AI guess it\u2019s still at least decades away. But they argue that as long as we\u2019re not 100% sure that it won\u2019t happen this century, it\u2019s smart to start safety research now to prepare for the eventuality. Many of the safety problems associated with human-level AI are so hard that they may take decades to solve. So it\u2019s prudent to start researching them now rather than the night before some programmers drinking Red Bull decide to switch one\u00a0on.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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CONTROVERSY MYTHS<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Another common misconception is that the only people harboring concerns about AI and advocating AI safety research are luddites who don\u2019t know much about AI. When Stuart Russell, author of the standard AI textbook, mentioned this during his Puerto Rico talk, the audience laughed loudly. A related misconception is that supporting AI safety research is hugely controversial. In fact, to support a modest investment in AI safety research, people don\u2019t need to be convinced that risks are high, merely non-negligible \u2014 just as a modest investment in home insurance is justified by a non-negligible probability of the home burning down.<\/span><\/p>\n

It may be that\u00a0media have made the AI safety debate seem more controversial than it really is.\u00a0After all, fear sells, and articles using out-of-context quotes to proclaim imminent doom can generate more clicks than nuanced and balanced ones.\u00a0As a result, two people who only know about each other\u2019s positions from media quotes are likely to think they disagree more than they really do. For example, a techno-skeptic who only read about Bill Gates\u2019s position in a British tabloid may mistakenly think Gates believes superintelligence to be imminent. Similarly, someone in the beneficial-AI movement who knows nothing about Andrew Ng\u2019s position except his quote about overpopulation on Mars may mistakenly think he doesn\u2019t care about AI safety, whereas in fact, he does. The crux is simply that because Ng\u2019s timeline estimates are longer, he naturally tends to prioritize short-term AI challenges over long-term ones.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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MYTHS ABOUT THE RISKS OF SUPERHUMAN AI<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Many AI researchers roll their eyes when seeing this headline:\u00a0\u201c<\/strong>Stephen Hawking warns that rise of robots may be disastrous for mankind.\u201d<\/strong> <\/em>And as many have\u00a0lost count of how many similar articles they\u2019ve\u00a0seen.\u00a0Typically, these articles are accompanied by an evil-looking robot carrying a weapon, and they suggest we should worry about robots rising up and killing us because they\u2019ve become conscious and\/or evil.\u00a0On a lighter note, such articles are actually rather impressive, because they succinctly summarize the scenario that AI researchers don\u2019t<\/em>\u00a0worry about. That scenario combines as many as three separate misconceptions: concern about consciousness<\/em>, evil,<\/em> and\u00a0robots<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

If you drive down the road, you have a subjective experience of colors, sounds, etc<\/em>. But does a self-driving car have a subjective experience? Does it feel like anything at all to be a self-driving car? \u00a0Although this mystery of consciousness is interesting in its own right, it\u2019s irrelevant to AI risk. If you get struck by a driverless car, it makes no difference to you whether it subjectively feels conscious. In the same way, what will affect us humans is what superintelligent AI\u00a0does<\/em>, not how it subjectively feels<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The fear of machines turning evil is another red herring. The real worry isn\u2019t malevolence, but competence. A superintelligent AI is by definition very good at attaining its goals, whatever they may be, so we need to ensure that its goals are aligned with ours. Humans don\u2019t generally hate ants, but we\u2019re more intelligent than they are \u2013 so if we want to build a hydroelectric dam and there\u2019s an anthill there, too bad for the ants. The beneficial-AI movement wants to avoid placing humanity in the position of those ants.<\/span><\/p>\n

The consciousness misconception is related to the myth that machines can\u2019t have goals.\u00a0Machines can obviously have goals in the narrow sense of exhibiting goal-oriented behavior: the behavior of a heat-seeking missile is most economically explained as a goal to hit a target.\u00a0If you feel threatened by a machine whose goals are misaligned with yours, then it is precisely its goals in this narrow sense that troubles you, not whether the machine is conscious and experiences a sense of purpose.\u00a0If that heat-seeking missile were chasing you, you probably wouldn\u2019t exclaim: \u201cI\u2019m not worried, because machines can\u2019t have goals!\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

I sympathize with Rodney Brooks and other robotics pioneers who feel unfairly demonized by scaremongering tabloids,\u00a0because some journalists seem obsessively fixated on robots and adorn many of their articles with evil-looking metal monsters with red shiny eyes. In fact, the main concern of the beneficial-AI movement isn\u2019t with robots but with intelligence itself: specifically, intelligence whose goals are misaligned with ours. To cause us trouble, such misaligned superhuman intelligence needs no robotic body, merely an internet connection \u2013 this may enable outsmarting financial markets, out-inventing human researchers, out-manipulating human leaders, and developing weapons we cannot even understand. Even if building robots were physically impossible, a super-intelligent and super-wealthy AI could easily pay or manipulate many humans to unwittingly do its bidding.<\/span><\/p>\n

The robot misconception is related to the myth that machines can\u2019t control humans. Intelligence enables control: humans control tigers not because we are stronger, but because we are smarter. This means that if we cede our position as smartest on our planet, it\u2019s possible that we might also cede control.<\/span><\/p>\n

Source: https:\/\/futureoflife.org\/<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A captivating\u00a0conversation is taking place about the future of artificial intelligence and what it will\/should mean for humanity.\u00a0There are fascinating controversies where\u00a0the world\u2019s leading<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1615,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Top Myths About Advanced Artificial Intelligence - New World : Artificial Intelligence<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newworldai.com\/the-top-myths-about-advanced-artificial-intelligence\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Top Myths About Advanced Artificial Intelligence - New World : Artificial Intelligence\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A captivating\u00a0conversation is taking place about the future of artificial intelligence and what it will\/should mean for humanity.\u00a0There are fascinating controversies where\u00a0the world\u2019s leading\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.newworldai.com\/the-top-myths-about-advanced-artificial-intelligence\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"New World : Artificial Intelligence\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/groups\/952169468169594\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-01-27T18:18:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2017-01-27T18:42:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.newworldai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/put-genie-back-in-the-bottle.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"960\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"mussem\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@NewWorldAI1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@NewWorldAI1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"mussem\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.newworldai.com\/the-top-myths-about-advanced-artificial-intelligence\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.newworldai.com\/the-top-myths-about-advanced-artificial-intelligence\/\",\"name\":\"The Top Myths About Advanced Artificial Intelligence - 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